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Week 5 Picks

Week 5 is here! Find out who TRO has its money on against the spread.

via Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group


Last week, we had went a season-best 3-1 in our First Four Down picks leveling us back out at the .500 mark. We'll hope to continue to deliver on these "locks" of the week. A crazy Week 4 led us to finishing below .500 from the Field, which can be expected when trying to pick every single matchup. Here's who we're on this week and why:


TRO'S FIRST FOUR DOWNS:


1st Down: Tennessee Titans (-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

via TitansWire / USA Today


There's been far too much drama surrounding Urban Meyer and the Jaguars for them to not lose by a touchdown or more to the Titans. The Titans might still be a little beat up and coming off of a demoralizing upset loss to the Jets, but they'll get back to form with this slam dunk matchup. Derrick Henry should have an outstanding day, and the Jaguars pass defense won't be of any concern to Ryan Tannehill as they've allowed the 3rd most passing yards in the League. This is an easier matchup than the Jets, especially given the bad week the Jags have had.


2nd Down: Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (-3.0)

via Grant Halverson / Getty Images


Carolina put together a great first half and a solid 4th quarter on the road against a red hot Dallas Cowboys team. The Eagles have problems on the defensive side of the ball, they have a hard time establishing he run, and they lack the number of offensive weapons Dallas has. The Panthers defense will look a lot more like the unit we saw through the first 3 weeks, and the Panthers offense will click against Philly's porous defense. There's a possibility that CMC will be back, but even if he doesn't go, the Panthers have forced Philadelphia to game plan for him. The Panthers are simply the better team, and they will bounce back at home winning by 4 or more.


3rd Down: New England Patriots (-8.5) @ Houston Texans

via Maddie Meyer / Getty Images


The Patriots put together a heck of a performance against the Buccaneers last week. Houston is a mess with Davis Mills at the helm. Bill Belichick loves tearing apart opposing rookie quarterbacks, and Davis Mills is next on his list. The Patriots defense will have a huge day, and Mac Jones will play mistake free ball, leading to a 10+ point win for New England.


4th Down: Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)

via ABC7Chicago


The Chargers got off to a 21-0 lead against the Raiders last week largely due to the help they got from their pass rush. The Bears defense should be in Derek Carr's ear all day. On the other side of the ball, the element of a fully unleashed Justin Fields makes this an interesting game. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to Chicago's offense, and with Matt Nagy NOT calling the plays, they can use that to their advantage. We expect Chicago to at least keep it close. The Bears probably won't pull out a win, but 5.5 points is a lot for the matchup disadvantages some of Chicago's personnel poses for Las Vegas.


THE FIELD:


Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks

The Rams will bounce back to victory after a tough division loss to the Cardinals. This should be an exciting matchup, but the Rams simply check more boxes than the Seahawks. Look for the 8-0 win streak of the Seahawks' lime green uniforms to come to an end with a 3+ point win for Los Angeles.


Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

Always tough to bet against Kansas City, but Buffalo has absolutely steamrolled their last 3 opponents. They are the more complete team and will be out for revenge from the AFC Championship.


New Orleans Saints (-2.0) @ Washington Football Team

Two head coaches very familiar with each other, squaring off with two very mediocre teams. We like the home underdogs here. Their defensive line will come to life forcing Jameis Winston to make a mistake or two, while the Saints defense will struggle to get after Taylor Heinicke.


Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.0)

Minnesota should win this football game, but this matchup screams backdoor cover. Look for the Lions to sneak within 10 or even push right at 10 near the very end of the game.


Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.0)

Tampa Bay is just in a different class than Miami, even with some of the injuries in the secondary. The Bucs can't be too happy with how they played last week (even though they won the game), so look for Brady to have his boys back firing on all cylinders.


Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers (-2.0)

A very tough game to pick, both of these teams are equally matched. We like the Chargers at home by 3, as their pass attack continues to impress.


San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-5.0)

With each week that passes that the Cardinals go without losing a game, the more we will like taking the points, simply because that's how the NFL goes. It is so hard to win every week and put a streak together, especially against the spread. This is a tough divisional matchup and the unknown of Trey Lance will give the Niners enough of an edge to cover this game. Look for the Cardinals to still will win by 1-4 points.


New York Jets @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

The Falcons are a more veteran-led team, and we'll take Matt Ryan in London with only needing a field goal win to cover. Although Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage are out, the Jets won't know what to do with Cordarrelle Patterson, and look for Kyle Pitts to have a career day.


Green Bay Packers (-3.0) @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are not a bad football team, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are playing like we expected them to all year. Rodgers will make just enough plays to win by approximately a touchdown.


Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers (pk)

We love a good pick 'em (50/50 odds!). Teddy Bridgewater returned to practice Thursday and appears to be good to go for Sunday's matchup in Pittsburgh. The Broncos defense will give Big Ben fits as they win a close game.


New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.0)

The Giants have looked scrappy this year, and Daniel Jones has started to clean his game up a bit. However, Dallas has far too many weapons, and Dak Prescott has been far too great for them not to win by around 10 points (or more).


Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.0)

We'll take Lamar Jackson at home over Carson Wentz to pull out a two possession win.


Come back next Wednesday for Week 6's picks!

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